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Steve Gilliard, 1964-2007

It is with tremendous sadness that we must convey the news that Steve Gilliard, editor and publisher of The News Blog, passed away June 2, 2007. He was 42.

To those who have come to trust The News Blog and its insightful, brash and unapologetic editorial tone, we have Steve to thank from the bottom of our hearts. Steve helped lead many discussions that mattered to all of us, and he tackled subjects and interest categories where others feared to tread.

Please keep Steve's friends and family in your thoughts and prayers.

Steve meant so much to us.

We will miss him terribly.

photo by lindsay beyerstein
 

Jesse "Doc" Wendel: "Home Sales vs. Recession"




I'm top of the food chain; you're an entrée

Thanks to Doc Wendel for this great post!


This is the best single article I've read on what I believe is a coming full-blown major depression in the United States of a size not seen since The Great Depression.

From the brilliant blog on housing markets, Calculated Risk, comes the following excerpt. I recommend both the blog and the whole post, written by CR. There are posers and there are people to pay attention to. This is someone to pay attention to, especially when he backs his assessment with thirty-five years of correlation -- which yeah, doesn't necessarily mean the one thing causes the other, and don't go quoting Latin at me y'all Sorkin junkies , there's a case to be made and he makes it strongly:

"Home sales were falling prior to every recession, with the exception of the business investment led recession of 2001. This should raise concerns about a possible consumer led recession in the months ahead."


If this doesn't rock your bubble, I don't know what will. *smiles sweetly* --jwe/sea


Click on graphs for larger image.



The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. Recession for the last 35 years. New Home sales were falling prior to every recession, with the exception of the business investment led recession of 2001. This should raise concerns about a possible consumer led recession in the months ahead.



The second graph shows Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) New Home Sales for February.

Sales have fallen back close to the levels of '96 and '97.

- posted by Jesse "Doc" Wendel

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